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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 23

Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – Minnesota Vikings 9

What Actually Happened

(11:27) 2-J.Myers 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.01 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 23, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 33, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model