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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 28

Minnesota Vikings 9 – Jacksonville Jaguars 9

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 2-K.Forbath 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.49 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 28, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 38, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model