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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 85

Jacksonville Jaguars 16 – Minnesota Vikings 18

What Actually Happened

(5:14) 3-B.Nortman punts 39 yards to MIN 46, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-52-H.Pullard.

The Three Options

GO -3.20 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.13 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 85, worth -4.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 43, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model