4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 66

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(6:02) (Punt formation) 30-C.Grant right end to JAX 43 for 9 yards (48-Z.Line). Fake Punt

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 66, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 24, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model