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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 48

San Francisco 49ers 17 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(2:16) 5-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to NYJ 12, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-81-R.Streater. PENALTY on NYJ-95-J.Martin, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at NYJ 12.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.65 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 48, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -1.05 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model