NYJ @ SF — 4th & Data

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HC Todd Bowles

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San Francisco 49ers

HC Chip Kelly

Sunday 2016-12-11 · 16:05 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

NYJ

44.2%

55.8%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

NYJ offense: -0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
SF offense: -0.116 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
SF defense: +0.132 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
QB edge to SF: Colin Kaepernick (SF) -0.061 vs Bryce Petty (NYJ) -0.247 EPA/dropback (NYJ starting Bryce Petty in place of Ryan Fitzpatrick)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 22

–

SF 23

Projected margin: SF by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

NYJ

Antonio Allen S Out Concussion

Breno Giacomini T Out Back

Jalin Marshall WR Out Concussion

Lorenzo Mauldin LB Out Ankle

Steve McLendon DT Out Hamstring

Khiry Robinson RB Out Lower Leg

Muhammad Wilkerson DE Questionable Ankle

SF

Joe Staley T Doubtful Hamstring

Quinton Dial DT Questionable Elbow

Aaron Lynch LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 23

–

SF 17

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 14:04 TD SF (14:04) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short right to 28-C.Hyde for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at NYJ 6; 6-yds YAC NYJ 0 – SF 6
Q1 10:49 TD SF (10:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 24-S.Draughn up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – SF 13
Q2 07:33 FG NYJ (7:33) 2-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 3 – SF 14
Q2 05:50 FG SF (5:50) 4-P.Dawson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. NYJ 3 – SF 17
Q3 06:31 FG NYJ (6:31) 2-N.Folk 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. Penalty on SF-33-R.Robinson, Defensive Offside, declined. NYJ 6 – SF 17
Q4 05:09 TD NYJ (5:09) (Shotgun) 29-B.Powell left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 12 – SF 17
Q4 00:43 FG NYJ (:43) 2-N.Folk 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 17 – SF 17
Q5 08:41 TD NYJ (8:41) (Shotgun) 29-B.Powell left tackle for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-55-A.Brooks, Defensive Offside, declined. NYJ 23 – SF 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 54

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP

p(convert) 47%

(12:41) 4-L.Edwards punts 35 yards to SF 19, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.
Q1 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(8:39) 4-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to SF 20, Center-46-T.Purdum. 17-J.Kerley to SF 30 for 10 yards (95-J.Martin, 45-R.Miles).
Q1 SF 4th & 3 at the 26

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47% p(FG) 81%

(5:42) 4-P.Dawson 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
Q1 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 45

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP

p(convert) 46% p(FG) 35%

(2:06) 4-L.Edwards punts 33 yards to SF 12, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.
Q2 SF 4th & 18 at the 30

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 21% p(FG) 74%

(13:27) 4-P.Dawson 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 18

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 91%

(7:33) 2-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
Q2 SF 4th & 7 at the 29

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 76%

(5:50) 4-P.Dawson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
Q2 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 78

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(4:30) 4-L.Edwards punts 37 yards to SF 41, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.
Q2 SF 4th & 12 at the 48

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 28%

(2:16) 5-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to NYJ 12, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-81-R.Streater. PENALTY on NYJ-95-J.Martin, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at NYJ 12.
Q2 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 53

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 19%

(:59) 4-L.Edwards punts 42 yards to SF 11, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.
Q3 SF 4th & 5 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44%

(14:01) 5-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to NYJ 24, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 30-N.Marshall.
Q3 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 12

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25% p(FG) 95%

(6:31) 2-N.Folk 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. Penalty on SF-33-R.Robinson, Defensive Offside, declined.
Q3 SF 4th & 6 at the 58

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(3:22) 5-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to NYJ 21, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-13-A.Burbridge.
Q3 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 55

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44%

(:28) 4-L.Edwards punts 36 yards to SF 19, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.
Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 53%

(13:39) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to NYJ 34, Center-86-K.Nelson. 30-N.Marshall to NYJ 34 for no gain (81-R.Streater).
Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 37

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 57% p(FG) 57%

(9:25) (Shotgun) 9-B.Petty pass short left to 17-C.Peake to SF 27 for 10 yards (98-R.Blair) [50-N.Bellore]. Caught at SF 29 2-yds YAC
Q4 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 32 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 69%

(:43) 2-N.Folk 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
Q4 SF 4th & 7 at the 72 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(:25) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to NYJ 32, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 30-N.Marshall.