Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 70

San Francisco 49ers 17 – New York Jets 3

(14:01) 5-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to NYJ 24, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 30-N.Marshall.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 70, worth -3.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model