4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 72

San Francisco 49ers 17 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(:25) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to NYJ 32, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 30-N.Marshall.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.29 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 72, worth -2.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 30, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model