Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 74

New York Jets 0 – San Francisco 49ers 14

(8:39) 4-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to SF 20, Center-46-T.Purdum. 17-J.Kerley to SF 30 for 10 yards (95-J.Martin, 45-R.Miles).

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.20 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model