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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 50

Green Bay Packers 21 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(1:21) 10-J.Schum punts 40 yards to SEA 10, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.14 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 50, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -1.22 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model