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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2016-12-11 · 16:25 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌨 Snow Spread -3.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

SEA
43.1%
GB
56.9%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB defense: +0.140 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • GB offense: +0.107 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.174 vs Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.114 EPA/dropback
  • SEA offense: +0.020 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 25
–
GB 27
Projected margin: GB by 2 Projected total: 52

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

SEA

Brock Coyle LB Out Foot
Damontre Moore DE Out Foot
C.J. Prosise RB Out Shoulder
Will Tukuafu RB Out Concussion
Michael Morgan LB Questionable Hip

GB

Kyler Fackrell LB Out Hamstring
Nick Perry LB Out Hand
Ladarius Gunter CB Questionable Illness
T.J. Lang G Questionable Foot
Blake Martinez LB Questionable Knee
Clay Matthews LB Questionable Shoulder
Damarious Randall CB Questionable Groin
J.C. Tretter C Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 10
–
GB 38

Prediction missed by 26 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:41 TD GB (13:41) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – GB 6
  • Q1 06:19 FG SEA (6:19) 4-S.Hauschka 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 3 – GB 7
  • Q2 09:41 TD GB (9:41) (Shotgun) 88-T.Montgomery left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 3 – GB 13
  • Q2 05:21 TD GB (5:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 87-J.Nelson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 3 – GB 20
  • Q3 04:31 TD GB (4:31) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 87-J.Nelson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 3 – GB 27
  • Q4 10:35 FG GB (10:35) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum. SEA 3 – GB 31
  • Q4 08:26 TD SEA (8:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 19-T.McEvoy for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 9 – GB 31
  • Q4 05:50 TD GB (5:50) 83-J.Janis left end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA-72-M.Bennett was injured during the play. PENALTY on GB-21-H.Clinton-Dix, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. SEA 10 – GB 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 2 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 96%

    (6:19) 4-S.Hauschka 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 5 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 66%

    (2:10) 2-M.Crosby 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EP
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 28%

    (:34) 9-J.Ryan punts 35 yards to GB 14, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 2 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 28%

    (13:16) 10-J.Schum punts 33 yards to SEA 16, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 19 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:05) 9-J.Ryan punts 31 yards to SEA 48, Center-48-N.Frese, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 40%

    (2:34) 9-J.Ryan punts 28 yards to GB 16, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 8 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 26%

    (1:21) 10-J.Schum punts 40 yards to SEA 10, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:01) 10-J.Schum punts 32 yards to SEA 33, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-33-M.Hyde.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 7 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (2:34) 9-J.Ryan punts 42 yards to GB 24, Center-48-N.Frese. 33-M.Hyde ran ob at GB 34 for 10 yards (41-D.McDonald). PENALTY on GB-28-J.Hawkins, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 24.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (14:11) 10-J.Schum punts 49 yards to SEA 18, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 3 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (11:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right to 15-J.Kearse [52-C.Matthews].

  • Q4 GB 4th & 8 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 90%

    (10:35) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 64%

    (6:04) 32-C.Michael right end to SEA 37 for -2 yards (31-K.Chancellor).