Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 65

Green Bay Packers 21 – Seattle Seahawks 3

(9:01) 10-J.Schum punts 32 yards to SEA 33, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-33-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.40 EP
65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 65, worth -3.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model