Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 66

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Green Bay Packers 28

What Actually Happened

(2:34) 9-J.Ryan punts 42 yards to GB 24, Center-48-N.Frese. 33-M.Hyde ran ob at GB 34 for 10 yards (41-D.McDonald). PENALTY on GB-28-J.Hawkins, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.06 EP
59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model