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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 20

Green Bay Packers 28 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(10:35) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.98 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 20, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model