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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 10

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:19) 4-S.Hauschka 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +2.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.35 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP