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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 18

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:31) 6-C.Sturgis 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.35 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 18, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model