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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2016-12-11 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

WAS
67.0%
PHI
33.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: +0.173 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • PHI offense: -0.103 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Kirk Cousins (WAS): +0.237 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • WAS defense: +0.081 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • PHI defense: +0.033 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 26
–
PHI 21
Projected margin: WAS by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

WAS

Will Blackmon S Out Concussion
Anthony Lanier DE Out Shin
Spencer Long C Out Concussion
Shawn Lauvao G Questionable Groin
Ty Nsekhe T Questionable Ankle
Derek Carrier TE Questionable Knee
Will Compton LB Questionable Hip
Jordan Reed TE Questionable Shoulder
Brandon Scherff G Questionable Ankle
Preston Smith LB Questionable Groin
Chris Baker DE Questionable Ankle
Ricky Jean Francois DE Questionable Foot

PHI

Halapoulivaati Vaitai T Out Knee
Dorial Green-Beckham WR Questionable Abdomen
Ryan Mathews RB Questionable Knee
Jordan Matthews WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 27
–
PHI 22

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:49 FG PHI (9:49) 6-C.Sturgis 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. WAS 0 – PHI 3
  • Q2 10:31 FG PHI (10:31) 6-C.Sturgis 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. WAS 0 – PHI 6
  • Q2 04:19 TD WAS (4:19) 32-R.Kelley left tackle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – PHI 6
  • Q2 00:32 TD PHI (:32) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 43-D.Sproles for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 7 – PHI 12
  • Q3 09:26 TD WAS (9:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 11-D.Jackson for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – PHI 13
  • Q3 00:12 TD WAS (:12) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 88-P.Garcon for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 20 – PHI 13
  • Q4 13:16 TD PHI (13:16) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 11-D.Jackson INTERCEPTED by 21-L.McKelvin at WAS 29. 21-L.McKelvin for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 21 – PHI 19
  • Q4 05:03 FG PHI (5:03) 6-C.Sturgis 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Burton, Holder-8-D.Jones. WAS 21 – PHI 22
  • Q4 02:00 TD WAS (2:00) 25-C.Thompson left end for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 27 – PHI 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 3 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 81%

    (9:49) 6-C.Sturgis 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (8:17) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to PHI 20, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 8 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 90%

    (1:09) 3-D.Hopkins 38 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 8 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 92%

    (10:31) 6-C.Sturgis 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:10) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to PHI 28, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-D.Sproles for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on PHI-86-Z.Ertz, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 33.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 14 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:06) 8-D.Jones punts 52 yards to WAS 11, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at WAS 19 for 8 yards (47-T.Burton).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 2 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 60%

    (5:04) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to WAS 29 for 8 yards (54-M.Foster).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 13 at the 32
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 72%

    (3:29) (Field Goal formation) 8-D.Jones FUMBLES (Aborted) at WAS 40, and recovers at WAS 40. 8-D.Jones to WAS 46 for -6 yards (24-J.Norman; 90-E.Hood). 87 B.Celek in at Long Snapper.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:45) 8-D.Jones punts 54 yards to WAS 26, Center-87-B.Celek. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 31 for 5 yards (37-C.Smith). PHI-87-B.Celek was injured during the play. PENALTY on WAS-22-D.Everett, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 31.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (11:38) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to PHI 25, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS. PHI-43-D.Sproles was injured during the play. PENALTY on WAS-22-D.Everett, Interference with Opportunity to Catch, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 25.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 67%

    (7:27) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to WAS 32 for 2 yards (92-C.Baker).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 23
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 87%

    (5:03) 6-C.Sturgis 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Burton, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 35 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 65%

    (2:59) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 88-P.Garcon to PHI 29 for 6 yards (21-L.McKelvin).