Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 77

Washington Commanders 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(13:10) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to PHI 28, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-D.Sproles for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on PHI-86-Z.Ertz, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 77, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model