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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 37

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(5:04) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to WAS 29 for 8 yards (54-M.Foster).

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.69 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.30 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model