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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 32

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(3:29) (Field Goal formation) 8-D.Jones FUMBLES (Aborted) at WAS 40, and recovers at WAS 40. 8-D.Jones to WAS 46 for -6 yards (24-J.Norman; 90-E.Hood). 87 B.Celek in at Long Snapper.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.88 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 42, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.69 EP