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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 27

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:49) 6-C.Sturgis 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.73 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 27, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model