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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 23

Philadelphia Eagles 19 – Washington Commanders 21

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 6-C.Sturgis 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Burton, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.25 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 23, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP