4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 67

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(8:17) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to PHI 20, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.39 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 67, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 25, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP