4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 20

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 3-D.Hopkins 38 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.91 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 20, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model