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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 67

Detroit Lions 3 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to NYG 23, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 17-D.Harris to NYG 34 for 11 yards (35-M.Killebrew).

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.61 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 67, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 25, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP