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Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
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New York Giants

HC Ben McAdoo
Sunday 2016-12-18 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌨 Snow Spread 4.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

DET
46.9%
NYG
53.1%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG defense: -0.138 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NYG offense: -0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • DET offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Eli Manning (NYG): -0.028 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

DET 21
–
NYG 23
Projected margin: NYG by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

DET

Travis Swanson C Out Concussion
Theo Riddick RB Doubtful Wrist
Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Shoulder
Eric Ebron TE Questionable Knee
DeAndre Levy LB Questionable Knee
Darius Slay CB Questionable Hamstring
Zach Zenner RB Questionable Concussion

NYG

Jason Pierre-Paul DE Out Core Muscle
Nat Berhe S Questionable Concussion
Keenan Robinson LB Questionable Shoulder
Shane Vereen RB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 6
–
NYG 17

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:30 TD NYG (9:30) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 87-S.Shepard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – NYG 6
  • Q2 14:07 FG DET (14:07) 5-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 3 – NYG 7
  • Q2 05:06 FG NYG (5:06) 5-R.Gould 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. DET 3 – NYG 10
  • Q3 07:44 FG DET (7:44) 5-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 6 – NYG 10
  • Q4 05:51 TD NYG (5:51) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 13-O.Beckham for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – NYG 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 12 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:45) 6-S.Martin punts 63 yards to NYG 7, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-26-D.Carey.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (4:40) 9-B.Wing punts 43 yards to DET 41, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 12-A.Roberts to DET 46 for 5 yards (17-D.Harris). PENALTY on DET-29-J.Bademosi, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 41. Officially, a return for 0 yards.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 9 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 79%

    (14:07) 5-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:07) 9-B.Wing punts 51 yards to DET 19, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 12-A.Roberts to DET 22 for 3 yards (93-B.Goodson). FUMBLES (93-B.Goodson), ball out of bounds at DET 24.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 11 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 79%

    (5:06) 5-R.Gould 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (3:33) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to NYG 23, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 17-D.Harris to NYG 34 for 11 yards (35-M.Killebrew).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (2:03) 9-B.Wing punts 18 yards to DET 43, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-91-K.Sheppard. Ball deflected by DET #51- B.Copeland.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 6 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 54%

    (:50) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 13 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 94%

    (7:44) 5-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 8 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 62%

    (2:22) 9-B.Wing punts 33 yards to DET 4, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-82-R.Lewis.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 1 at the 87
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (:29) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to NYG 40, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 17-D.Harris to NYG 48 for 8 yards (26-D.Carey).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 18 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (14:49) 9-B.Wing punts 57 yards to DET 3, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-82-R.Lewis.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 9 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:21) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to NYG 24, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 13-O.Beckham pushed ob at NYG 29 for 5 yards (52-A.Williams).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (5:20) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to NYG 37, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 13-O.Beckham for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on NYG-37-E.Pinkins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 41. Officially, a return for 4 yards.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (4:00) 9-B.Wing punts 45 yards to DET 19, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 12-A.Roberts pushed ob at DET 25 for 6 yards (93-B.Goodson).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 78 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:25) 9-B.Wing punts 51 yards to DET 27, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 12-A.Roberts pushed ob at DET 29 for 2 yards (52-J.Casillas).