4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 61

New York Giants 10 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(2:03) 9-B.Wing punts 18 yards to DET 43, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-91-K.Sheppard. Ball deflected by DET #51- B.Copeland.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.22 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 61, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 20, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model