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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 40

Detroit Lions 3 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(:50) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.49 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.15 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model