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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 61

Detroit Lions 6 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(9:21) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to NYG 24, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 13-O.Beckham pushed ob at NYG 29 for 5 yards (52-A.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.53 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 61, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 20, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model