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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 64

New York Giants 17 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(4:00) 9-B.Wing punts 45 yards to DET 19, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 12-A.Roberts pushed ob at DET 25 for 6 yards (93-B.Goodson).

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.29 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 64, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 22, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model