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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 84

New York Giants 7 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 9-B.Wing punts 43 yards to DET 41, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 12-A.Roberts to DET 46 for 5 yards (17-D.Harris). PENALTY on DET-29-J.Bademosi, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 41. Officially, a return for 0 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.98 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 84, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.91 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 42, worth -1.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP