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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 29

Detroit Lions 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(14:07) 5-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.33 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 29, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 39, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model