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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 59

Indianapolis Colts 27 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(8:09) 1-P.McAfee punts 44 yards to MIN 15, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.11 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 59, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP