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Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2016-12-18 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

IND
45.6%
MIN
54.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN defense: -0.097 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • IND offense: +0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • MIN offense: -0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

IND 21
–
MIN 23
Projected margin: MIN by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

IND

Denzelle Good T Out Concussion
Arthur Jones DT Out Groin
Donte Moncrief WR Out Hamstring
Joe Reitz T Out Back
T.J. Green S Questionable Ankle
Dwayne Allen TE Questionable Hip
Phillip Dorsett WR Questionable Groin
Zach Kerr DT Questionable Concussion

MIN

Brandon Fusco G Out Concussion
Harrison Smith S Out Ankle
Laquon Treadwell WR Out Ankle
Trae Waynes CB Out Concussion
Matt Asiata RB Questionable Ankle
Mackensie Alexander CB Questionable Abdomen
Joe Berger C Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 34
–
MIN 6

Prediction missed by 30 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:06 FG IND (9:06) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. IND 3 – MIN 0
  • Q1 02:25 TD IND (2:25) (Run formation) 33-R.Turbin up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 9 – MIN 0
  • Q2 07:23 TD IND (7:23) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 86-E.Swoope for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 16 – MIN 0
  • Q2 00:41 TD IND (:41) 33-R.Turbin right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 23 – MIN 0
  • Q2 00:03 FG IND (:03) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. IND 27 – MIN 0
  • Q3 03:55 FG MIN (3:55) 2-K.Forbath 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. IND 27 – MIN 3
  • Q4 15:00 TD IND (15:00) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 15-P.Dorsett for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 33 – MIN 3
  • Q4 12:02 FG MIN (12:02) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. IND 34 – MIN 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 2 at the 30
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 77%

    (9:06) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (7:34) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 52 yards to IND 18, Center-47-K.McDermott. 80-C.Rogers to IND 48 for 30 yards (18-J.Locke).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 13 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:22) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 44 yards to IND 17, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-27-J.Kearse.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 7 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (14:15) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 42 yards to MIN 38, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:04) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 50 yards to IND 8, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 2 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (8:09) 1-P.McAfee punts 44 yards to MIN 15, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 13 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 95%

    (3:55) 2-K.Forbath 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 17 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 71%

    (12:02) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (7:54) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 41 yards to MIN 16, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 70
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass incomplete deep right to 84-C.Patterson (40-C.Milton).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 7 at the 15 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%

    (2:09) 34-J.Ferguson right end to MIN 14 for 1 yard (24-C.Munnerlyn; 34-A.Sendejo).