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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 15

Indianapolis Colts 34 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(2:09) 34-J.Ferguson right end to MIN 14 for 1 yard (24-C.Munnerlyn; 34-A.Sendejo).

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.09 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 15, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.55 EP