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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 70

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(7:34) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 52 yards to IND 18, Center-47-K.McDermott. 80-C.Rogers to IND 48 for 30 yards (18-J.Locke).

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 70, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 28, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model