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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 80

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(14:15) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 42 yards to MIN 38, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.76 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 80, worth -4.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 37, worth -2.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model