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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 18

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(7:24) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass incomplete deep right to 11-T.Austin [54-B.Wagner].

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.29 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 18, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 28, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.84 EP