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Los Angeles Rams

HC Jeff Fisher
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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Thursday 2016-12-15 · 20:25 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 15.0 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

LA
22.9%
SEA
77.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: -0.185 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Jared Goff (LA): -0.340 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SEA offense: -0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.039 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 17
–
SEA 26
Projected margin: SEA by 9 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

LA

Maurice Alexander S Out Concussion
Benny Cunningham RB Out Neck
E.J. Gaines CB Doubtful Thigh
Robert Quinn DE Doubtful Concussion
Matt Longacre DE Questionable Heel

SEA

Damontre Moore DE Out Foot
C.J. Prosise RB Out Shoulder
Dewey McDonald LB Questionable Illness
Brock Coyle LB Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 3
–
SEA 24

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 12:27 TD SEA (12:27) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 82-L.Willson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – SEA 6
  • Q2 08:50 FG SEA (8:50) 4-S.Hauschka 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. LA 0 – SEA 10
  • Q2 00:59 FG LA (:59) 4-G.Zuerlein 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 3 – SEA 10
  • Q3 03:17 TD SEA (3:17) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 89-D.Baldwin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 3 – SEA 16
  • Q4 14:56 TD SEA (14:56) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 3 – SEA 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 21%

    (10:03) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to LA 13, Center-48-N.Frese, out of bounds. PENALTY on SEA-91-C.Marsh, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at LA 13.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 97%

    (4:16) 30-T.Gurley left end to SEA 6 for 1 yard (54-B.Wagner; 50-K.Wright). Seattle challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 30-T.Gurley left end to SEA 7 for no gain (54-B.Wagner; 50-K.Wright).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 9 at the 70
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:52) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass incomplete short left to 13-M.Thomas.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 75%

    (8:50) 4-S.Hauschka 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 19 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (6:54) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to SEA 28, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (4:42) 9-J.Ryan punts 37 yards to LA 31, Center-48-N.Frese, downed by SEA-91-C.Marsh.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 5 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 92%

    (:59) 4-G.Zuerlein 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 2 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 38%

    (10:31) 9-J.Ryan punts 31 yards to LA 14, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 10 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:57) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to SEA 38, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 9 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:45) 6-J.Hekker punts 66 yards to SEA 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 33 for 13 yards (54-B.Hager).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 11 at the 18
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 92%

    (7:24) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass incomplete deep right to 11-T.Austin [54-B.Wagner].

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 73
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (5:22) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan up the middle to LA 47 for 26 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by SEA-27-N.Thorpe at LA 40. SEA-9-J.Ryan was injured during the play. Los Angeles challenged the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)

  • Q4 LA 4th & 4 at the 64 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (2:02) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass short left to 11-T.Austin to LA 37 for 1 yard (21-D.Elliott).