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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 73

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(5:22) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan up the middle to LA 47 for 26 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by SEA-27-N.Thorpe at LA 40. SEA-9-J.Ryan was injured during the play. Los Angeles challenged the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.83 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 73, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 31, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model