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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 64

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(2:02) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass short left to 11-T.Austin to LA 37 for 1 yard (21-D.Elliott).

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.66 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 64, worth -2.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 22, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model