Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 61

Miami Dolphins 6 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(6:36) 4-M.Darr punts 34 yards to NYJ 27, Center-92-J.Denney. 27-D.Roberts MUFFS catch, recovered by NYJ-30-N.Marshall at NYJ 18. 30-N.Marshall pushed ob at NYJ 32 for 14 yards (42-S.Paysinger).

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.42 EP
61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 61, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model