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Miami Dolphins

9-5 HC Adam Gase
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New York Jets

4-10 HC Todd Bowles
Saturday 2016-12-17 · 20:25 ET MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌨 Snow Spread -2.5 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

MIA
61.9%
NYJ
38.1%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.097 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Bryce Petty (NYJ): -0.174 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYJ defense: +0.017 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • MIA offense: +0.012 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

MIA 23 16–30
–
NYJ 20 13–27
Projected margin: MIA by 3 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 15

MIA

Ryan Tannehill QB Out Knee
Isa Abdul-Quddus S Questionable Neck
Branden Albert T Questionable Wrist
Jermon Bushrod T Questionable Shoulder
Bobby McCain CB Questionable Hand
Spencer Paysinger LB Questionable Thigh
Anthony Steen G Questionable Toe
Kiko Alonso LB Questionable Hamstring
Jelani Jenkins LB Questionable Knee
Mario Williams DE Questionable Ankle

NYJ

Mike Catapano LB Out Knee
Lorenzo Mauldin LB Out Ankle
Steve McLendon DT Out Hamstring
Buster Skrine CB Out Concussion
Brent Qvale T Doubtful Hamstring
Khiry Robinson RB Doubtful Lower Leg
Brandon Bostick TE Questionable Ankle
Quincy Enunwa WR Questionable Ribs
Matt Forte RB Questionable Knee
Brandon Marshall WR Questionable Knee
Muhammad Wilkerson DE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 34
–
NYJ 13

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:39 TD NYJ (11:39) 9-B.Petty pass deep middle to 11-R.Anderson for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – NYJ 6
  • Q2 11:03 TD MIA (11:03) 8-M.Moore pass incomplete short right to 80-D.Sims. Miami challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 8-M.Moore pass short right to 80-D.Sims for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – NYJ 7
  • Q2 02:06 TD MIA (2:06) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass deep middle to 10-K.Stills for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN [45-R.Miles]. MIA 12 – NYJ 7
  • Q2 00:22 FG NYJ (:22) 2-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. MIA 13 – NYJ 10
  • Q3 10:37 TD MIA (10:37) 4-L.Edwards punt is BLOCKED by 35-W.Aikens, Center-46-T.Purdum, RECOVERED by MIA-35-W.Aikens at NYJ 11. 35-W.Aikens for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYJ, Illegal Formation, declined. MIA 19 – NYJ 10
  • Q3 07:47 TD MIA (7:47) 8-M.Moore pass short right to 80-D.Sims for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 26 – NYJ 10
  • Q3 06:36 TD MIA (6:36) 8-M.Moore pass short middle to 14-J.Landry for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 33 – NYJ 10
  • Q4 05:47 FG NYJ (5:47) 2-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. MIA 34 – NYJ 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 10 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:42) 4-M.Darr punts 38 yards to NYJ 41, Center-92-J.Denney. 30-N.Marshall to NYJ 46 for 5 yards (49-Z.Vigil).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (2:50) 4-M.Darr punts 46 yards to NYJ 25, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 30-N.Marshall.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (:28) 4-L.Edwards punts 38 yards to MIA 41, Center-46-T.Purdum. 19-J.Grant ran ob at MIA 48 for 7 yards (30-N.Marshall; 45-R.Miles).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:36) 4-M.Darr punts 34 yards to NYJ 27, Center-92-J.Denney. 27-D.Roberts MUFFS catch, recovered by NYJ-30-N.Marshall at NYJ 18. 30-N.Marshall pushed ob at NYJ 32 for 14 yards (42-S.Paysinger).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 33%

    (3:59) (Shotgun) 29-B.Powell left guard to MIA 47 for no gain (90-E.Mitchell). New York Jets challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. (Timeout #2 at 03:49.)

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 75%

    (:22) 2-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:37) 4-L.Edwards punt is BLOCKED by 35-W.Aikens, Center-46-T.Purdum, RECOVERED by MIA-35-W.Aikens at NYJ 11. 35-W.Aikens for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYJ, Illegal Formation, declined.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (6:48) 4-L.Edwards punts 52 yards to MIA 24, Center-46-T.Purdum. 19-J.Grant to MIA 34 for 10 yards (50-D.Lee).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 35%

    (4:48) 4-L.Edwards punts 29 yards to MIA 17, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIA 4th & 13 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:28) 4-M.Darr punts 43 yards to NYJ 43, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (12:32) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete short left to 81-Q.Enunwa (42-S.Paysinger).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 86
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (9:59) 4-M.Darr punts 41 yards to NYJ 45, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 30-N.Marshall.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 92%

    (5:47) 2-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 12 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:14) 4-M.Darr punts 46 yards to NYJ 25, Center-92-J.Denney. 30-N.Marshall to MIA 48 for 27 yards (49-Z.Vigil).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 16 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.80 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 93%

    (:08) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left intended for 17-C.Peake INTERCEPTED by 36-T.Lippett at MIA 0. Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →