MIA @ NYJ — 4th & Data

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HC Adam Gase

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HC Todd Bowles

Saturday 2016-12-17 · 20:25 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌨 Snow Spread -2.5 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

MIA

57.8%

NYJ

42.2%

🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

Bryce Petty (NYJ): -0.174 EPA/dropback in prior starts
NYJ offense: -0.097 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
MIA offense: +0.012 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 23

–

NYJ 20

Projected margin: MIA by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

MIA

Ryan Tannehill QB Out Knee

Isa Abdul-Quddus S Questionable Neck

Branden Albert T Questionable Wrist

Jermon Bushrod T Questionable Shoulder

Bobby McCain CB Questionable Hand

Spencer Paysinger LB Questionable Thigh

Anthony Steen G Questionable Toe

Kiko Alonso LB Questionable Hamstring

Jelani Jenkins LB Questionable Knee

Mario Williams DE Questionable Ankle

NYJ

Mike Catapano LB Out Knee

Lorenzo Mauldin LB Out Ankle

Steve McLendon DT Out Hamstring

Buster Skrine CB Out Concussion

Brent Qvale T Doubtful Hamstring

Khiry Robinson RB Doubtful Lower Leg

Brandon Bostick TE Questionable Ankle

Quincy Enunwa WR Questionable Ribs

Matt Forte RB Questionable Knee

Brandon Marshall WR Questionable Knee

Muhammad Wilkerson DE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 34

–

NYJ 13

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 11:39 TD NYJ (11:39) 9-B.Petty pass deep middle to 11-R.Anderson for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – NYJ 6
Q2 11:03 TD MIA (11:03) 8-M.Moore pass incomplete short right to 80-D.Sims. Miami challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 8-M.Moore pass short right to 80-D.Sims for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – NYJ 7
Q2 02:06 TD MIA (2:06) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass deep middle to 10-K.Stills for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN [45-R.Miles]. MIA 12 – NYJ 7
Q2 00:22 FG NYJ (:22) 2-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. MIA 13 – NYJ 10
Q3 10:37 TD MIA (10:37) 4-L.Edwards punt is BLOCKED by 35-W.Aikens, Center-46-T.Purdum, RECOVERED by MIA-35-W.Aikens at NYJ 11. 35-W.Aikens for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYJ, Illegal Formation, declined. MIA 19 – NYJ 10
Q3 07:47 TD MIA (7:47) 8-M.Moore pass short right to 80-D.Sims for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 26 – NYJ 10
Q3 06:36 TD MIA (6:36) 8-M.Moore pass short middle to 14-J.Landry for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 33 – NYJ 10
Q4 05:47 FG NYJ (5:47) 2-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. MIA 34 – NYJ 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 MIA 4th & 10 at the 79

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(8:42) 4-M.Darr punts 38 yards to NYJ 41, Center-92-J.Denney. 30-N.Marshall to NYJ 46 for 5 yards (49-Z.Vigil).
Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43%

(2:50) 4-M.Darr punts 46 yards to NYJ 25, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 30-N.Marshall.
Q1 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 79

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(:28) 4-L.Edwards punts 38 yards to MIA 41, Center-46-T.Purdum. 19-J.Grant ran ob at MIA 48 for 7 yards (30-N.Marshall; 45-R.Miles).
Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 61

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(6:36) 4-M.Darr punts 34 yards to NYJ 27, Center-92-J.Denney. 27-D.Roberts MUFFS catch, recovered by NYJ-30-N.Marshall at NYJ 18. 30-N.Marshall pushed ob at NYJ 32 for 14 yards (42-S.Paysinger).
Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 47

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 67% p(FG) 33%

(3:59) (Shotgun) 29-B.Powell left guard to MIA 47 for no gain (90-E.Mitchell). New York Jets challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. (Timeout #2 at 03:49.)
Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 30

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 54% p(FG) 75%

(:22) 2-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
Q3 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 59

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(10:37) 4-L.Edwards punt is BLOCKED by 35-W.Aikens, Center-46-T.Purdum, RECOVERED by MIA-35-W.Aikens at NYJ 11. 35-W.Aikens for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYJ, Illegal Formation, declined.
Q3 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(6:48) 4-L.Edwards punts 52 yards to MIA 24, Center-46-T.Purdum. 19-J.Grant to MIA 34 for 10 yards (50-D.Lee).
Q3 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 46

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 35%

(4:48) 4-L.Edwards punts 29 yards to MIA 17, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.
Q3 MIA 4th & 13 at the 86

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(2:28) 4-M.Darr punts 43 yards to NYJ 43, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.
Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 5

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

(12:32) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete short left to 81-Q.Enunwa (42-S.Paysinger).
Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 86

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP

p(convert) 73%

(9:59) 4-M.Darr punts 41 yards to NYJ 45, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 30-N.Marshall.
Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 18

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 92%

(5:47) 2-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
Q4 MIA 4th & 12 at the 71 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(1:14) 4-M.Darr punts 46 yards to NYJ 25, Center-92-J.Denney. 30-N.Marshall to MIA 48 for 27 yards (49-Z.Vigil).
Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 16 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.80 EP

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 93%

(:08) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left intended for 17-C.Peake INTERCEPTED by 36-T.Lippett at MIA 0. Touchback.