4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 30

New York Jets 7 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(:22) 2-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.15 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.74 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 40, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model