Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 59

New York Jets 10 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(10:37) 4-L.Edwards punt is BLOCKED by 35-W.Aikens, Center-46-T.Purdum, RECOVERED by MIA-35-W.Aikens at NYJ 11. 35-W.Aikens for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYJ, Illegal Formation, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.05 EP
72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 59, worth -3.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model