Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 76

New York Jets 10 – Miami Dolphins 27

(6:48) 4-L.Edwards punts 52 yards to MIA 24, Center-46-T.Purdum. 19-J.Grant to MIA 34 for 10 yards (50-D.Lee).

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.44 EP
59% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 76, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model