Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 46

New York Jets 10 – Miami Dolphins 34

(4:48) 4-L.Edwards punts 29 yards to MIA 17, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.42 EP
65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -2.50 EP

KICK -0.97 EP

35% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
65% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model