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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 5

New York Jets 10 – Miami Dolphins 34

What Actually Happened

(12:32) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete short left to 81-Q.Enunwa (42-S.Paysinger).

The Three Options

GO +3.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.14 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 5, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model