Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 71

Miami Dolphins 34 – New York Jets 13

(1:14) 4-M.Darr punts 46 yards to NYJ 25, Center-92-J.Denney. 30-N.Marshall to MIA 48 for 27 yards (49-Z.Vigil).

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.09 EP
68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 71, worth -2.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model