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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 79

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 4-M.Darr punts 38 yards to NYJ 41, Center-92-J.Denney. 30-N.Marshall to NYJ 46 for 5 yards (49-Z.Vigil).

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.96 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 79, worth -4.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 36, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model